What is Probability?
A Gentle Introduction to the Foundations and Philosophy of Probability
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NOTE: This course is included in the sitewide bundle which unlocks every course in the Academy.
“But for us, probability is the very guide of life."

(Bishop Joseph Butler)
Probability concepts are important in everyday reasoning about chance and uncertainty, in the formal methods of inductive logic and scientific reasoning, and in philosophical arguments of many different kinds. They are also important in understanding the literature on cognitive biases in human reasoning, which often involve systematic violations of the basic rules of probability theory.
In this course I give you a guided tour of issues in the philosophy of probability (what IS a probability? what do probability statements MEAN?).
What Will I Learn in This Course?
In this course you'll learn:
 why probability concepts are important for critical thinking
 the distinction between interpretations of the probability concept, and the formal rules for reasoning with probabilities
 arguments for and against the most popular interpretations of the probability concept, including
 classical probability
 logical probability
 frequency interpretations
 subjective (Bayesian) probability
 propensity interpretations
What Do I Get With This Course?
When you enroll in this course you get
 8 video lectures, totaling 1 hour and 15 minutes of viewing time
 Full transcripts for each of the lectures, embedded below the videos
 Discussion comments for each of the lectures, allowing you to ask and respond to questions and comments
 A pdf ebook pages suitable for printing or viewing on a desktop computer or tablet device