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The Logic of Probability
The Rules for Reasoning with Probabilities
PDF Ebook - The Rules for Reasoning with Probabilities
Preliminary Concepts
1. What Has a Probability? Propositions versus Events (3:29)
2. Probabilities Range Between 0 and 1 (4:18)
3. Mutually Exclusive Events (0:58)
4. Independent Events (3:19)
The Basic Rules
1. The Negation Rule: P(not-A) (5:18)
i. Disjunction Rules: P(A or B)
2. Restricted Disjunction Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) (4:40)
Quiz: Restricted Disjunction Rule
3. General Disjunction Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) (5:01)
Quiz: General Disjunction Rule
ii. Conjunction Rules: P(A and B)
4. Restricted Conjunction Rule: P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B) (3:26)
Quiz: Restricted Conjunction Rule
5. General Conjunction Rule: P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A) (5:13)
Quiz: General Conjunction Rule
iii. Conditional Probability Rules: P(A given B)
6. Conditional Probability Rule (8:38)
7. Total Probability Rule (6:50)
8. Bayes' Rule (7:19)
Quiz: Bayes' Rule
2. Probabilities Range Between 0 and 1
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